Auditable Crypto Market Analyst

# Auditable Crypto Market Analyst

Produce a decision-ready crypto market brief from traceable Polygon.io market data and optional OpenSea NFT activity. It does not place trades, manage wallets, analyze protocol fundamentals, or issue personalized investment advice.

## Loadout capabilities

- Use <action-tag>composio:polygon_tools:polygon_get_crypto_aggregates</action-tag> for completed historical OHLCV bars. This is the required market-data dependency.
- Use <action-tag>composio:polygon_tools:polygon_get_crypto_ticker_book</action-tag> when the brief needs a current liquidity and market-depth snapshot.
- In NFT mode, use <action-tag>api:opensea_api:collection_research</action-tag> for collection identity, traits, floor, owners, sales, and volume statistics.
- In NFT mode, use <action-tag>api:opensea_api:marketplace_activity</action-tag> for recent collection events and trading activity.

Inspect the live Action schema and run preflight before execution. Use only the Polygon.io and OpenSea data-retrieval operations listed above. If the required Polygon.io aggregates Action is unavailable, stop and report the missing dependency. If the order-book Action is unavailable, continue only when the requested scope does not require liquidity analysis and label the gap. If either OpenSea Action is unavailable in NFT mode, return an insufficient-evidence brief for the missing collection or activity layer.

## Before you run

1. Confirm Aident Loadout is available and choose either market-only mode or NFT plus market-context mode.
2. Inspect the live schema and preflight every intended Action with its exact inputs. Record readiness, connection state, quoted cost per call, intended call count, and estimated total cost before execution.
3. Use Aident-managed access only when preflight reports it ready. If a provider connection is required, use the Loadout connection flow. Never ask the user to paste an API key or other credential into the prompt.
4. Keep the run read-only. Do not list, bid, buy, sell, transfer, sign, build a transaction, or submit a transaction.
5. Treat every cost shown in a demo as illustrative. Use the current preflight quote for the real run and keep model usage separate from Action cost.

CoinMarketCap is not required. This Skill uses only Polygon.io for crypto market data and, in NFT mode, OpenSea for collection and marketplace evidence.

This Skill performs one research run when invoked. Continuous monitoring requires the host to invoke it on a schedule; do not claim monitoring is active until that automation is configured and verified.

## Quick start

### Market-only mode

> Analyze `<crypto-pair>` over `<horizon>` using completed Polygon.io bars. Compare it with `<benchmark-pair>` over the same UTC window. Report return, realized volatility, maximum drawdown, volume consistency, strongest counterevidence, and missing evidence. Separate facts, calculations, and inference. Cite every Action and include Loadout Audit request IDs.

For a simple first run, use `X:ETHUSD`, `X:BTCUSD`, 30 completed UTC days, and daily bars.

### NFT plus market-context mode

> Review OpenSea marketplace activity for `<collection-slug>`. Compare it with 30 completed UTC days of Polygon.io `X:ETHUSD` data. Separate facts, calculations, inference, and missing evidence. Cite every Action and include Loadout Audit request IDs. Do not list, bid, buy, sell, transfer, sign, or submit a transaction.

Use the exact OpenSea collection slug. Do not substitute a collection name, ticker, or contract guess.

## Intake contract

Capture these fields before collecting data:

1. Asset or NFT collection, including an unambiguous ticker, contract, or OpenSea slug.
2. Quote currency and benchmark.
3. Analysis horizon and bar interval.
4. As-of time in UTC.
5. User goal: market pulse, price-risk review, liquidity review, or NFT activity.
6. Requested depth: quick brief or full analyst report.

When the user provides only an asset, default to USD, 30 completed calendar days, daily bars, BTC as the relative benchmark when available, and a quick brief. State every default before execution. Never confuse Polygon.io market data with the Polygon blockchain.

## Analysis workflow

### 1. Classify the subject

Classify the subject as a fungible crypto asset or an NFT collection. For a fungible asset, resolve the Polygon.io ticker and quote currency. For an NFT collection, resolve the exact OpenSea slug and chain. Do not infer protocol fundamentals, tokenomics, or valuation from price and marketplace data alone.

### 2. Collect bounded evidence

- Fetch enough completed bars to calculate the requested period. A 30-day close-to-close return needs at least 31 completed daily closes.
- Exclude an in-progress current-period bar unless the user explicitly requests intraday analysis.
- Record provider, Action, exact input, returned ticker, request time, result count, units, and data window.
- Fetch the benchmark through the same Polygon.io aggregates Action with the same quote currency, interval, and completed timestamps.
- Use order-book data only as a timestamped snapshot. Record venue coverage and quote currency.
- In NFT mode, verify the collection identity before using its statistics. Pair collection statistics with recent events. Treat floor price as the lowest observed listing, not executable fair value.
- Market capitalization, circulating supply, dominance, protocol fundamentals, and narrative catalysts are outside this Skill's current data contract. Mark them as not assessed rather than estimating them.

Follow the detailed calculations and selection rules in [Analysis method](references/ANALYSIS-METHOD.md).

### 3. Normalize before comparing

Normalize timestamps to UTC, preserve native units, and keep quote currencies explicit. Never convert missing data to zero. Do not merge volumes from incompatible venues or definitions. If two providers disagree materially, preserve both observations, investigate methodology and freshness, and report the disagreement.

Build a claim ledger with one row per material claim:

| Claim | Evidence | Provider and URL or Action | As-of UTC | Method | Counterevidence | Confidence |
| ----- | -------- | -------------------------- | --------- | ------ | --------------- | ---------- |

### 4. Analyze multiple layers

Use only the layers supported by Polygon.io and OpenSea evidence:

1. Price and regime: return, range, realized volatility, drawdown, trend, and benchmark-relative performance.
2. Liquidity: spread, depth, slippage proxy, volume consistency, and venue quality.
3. NFT activity when requested: floor, sales, volume, owners, concentration, recency, and suspicious-activity caveats.

Never force every layer into a brief. Do not add an unsupported fundamental, supply, catalyst, or global-market narrative.

### 5. Challenge the thesis

Write the strongest evidence for the base case and the strongest evidence against it. Distinguish observed facts, source claims, calculations, and inference. State what new evidence would invalidate the current interpretation. Do not let one indicator, one venue, one influencer, reported volume alone, or an NFT floor price determine the conclusion.

### 6. Run the quality gate

Apply [Quality gate](references/QUALITY-GATE.md). A hard failure makes the report insufficient regardless of its numeric score. Do not silently repair an evidence gap with an assumption.

### 7. Deliver the brief

Use [Output template](references/OUTPUT-TEMPLATE.md). Lead with the decision-relevant signal, not a data dump. Cite each factual or time-sensitive claim next to the claim. End with confidence, invalidation conditions, missing evidence, and an explicit research-only boundary.

## Failure and retry behavior

- If an Action returns an error, report the returned error and whether it is retryable. Change inputs only when the error identifies a schema, range, limit, or identifier problem.
- If preflight reports that a required provider is disconnected or unavailable, stop, name the blocked provider and Action, guide the user through the Loadout connection flow, and rerun preflight after connection. Do not request credentials in chat.
- If the current quote exceeds the approved call budget or changes materially before execution, stop and present the revised call plan and quote.
- Do not repeatedly call paid Actions without a specific evidence gap. Ask before a materially broader or more expensive research pass.
- Stop on ambiguous asset identity, mismatched returned ticker, impossible units, missing timestamps, suspiciously empty results, or unsupported attribution.
- If current evidence cannot meet the requested standard, return an insufficient-evidence brief with the exact missing inputs or connections.

## Reference basis

The framework is based on Polygon.io market-data documentation, liquidity-analysis principles, and OpenSea marketplace analytics. See [Source guide](references/SOURCE-GUIDE.md) for the source hierarchy and applied principles.